Bitcoin’s sudden drop has sparked a three-way debate among veteran traders. While Arthur Hayes points to Bank of Japan policy, Nik Algo blames time-based rebalancing flows and Peter Brandt warns the move may fit a much larger parabolic cycle that has always ended in deep drawdowns. Bitcoin Drops On BOJ Rate Talk Hayes Says Bitcoin fell shortly after Bank of Japan rate-hike signals shifted. Arthur Hayes said the drop started from macro pressure tied to the yen. He explained that Japanese officials brought a December rate move into market focus. Therefore, Bitcoin reacted within Asia-Pacific trading hours once the yen weakened into a tightening-friendly corridor. Bitcoin and USDJPY Intraday Selloff. Source: X Hayes tied the yen range between 155 and 160 against the dollar to a hawkish BOJ tilt. He said the BOJ positioned tightening tone to counter inflation risk driven by costly imports. As a result, funding expectations changed for leveraged trades that rely on looser yen liquidity. Bitcoin dropped once currency pressure and rate-hike tone moved together. The chart in the image marked Bitcoin near $86,409.25 at the labeled time. Simultaneously, USD/JPY printed 155.50, inside Hayes’ hawkish band. Thus, policy tone, not blockchain mechanics, drove the repricing. Hayes argued that yen liquidity often fuels crypto when policy stays easy, but now the channel slows. Accordingly, Bitcoin absorbed downside as yen flows recalibrated for higher funding costs. The BOJ shift echoed into global risk assets in the same window. Hayes said once Japan prices hikes, dollar-yen flows rebalance and capital exits speculative corners. Subsequently, assets that lean on cheaper global liquidity reprice lower. Bitcoin matched that timing. Hayes’ point sits on currency band pressure and rate-hike tone converging into one catalyst. Nik Algo Points To Time-Based Rebalancing, Not Headlines Nik Algo offered a different explanation for the same Bitcoin slide. He said the move had nothing to do with negative developments or breaking headlines. Instead, he argued the drop started exactly as the clock rolled into a fresh UTC day, week and month, which is when many automated strategies run their scheduled orders. Bitcoin UTC Flip Selloff Hourly Chart. Source: X In his view, a wave of systematic flows hit the market at once. Portfolios rebalanced, inventory marks updated and hedge books reset as algorithmic programs fired almost simultaneously. As these orders crossed the book, they pushed price sharply lower on heavy volume. Nik Algo stressed that the chart may look like fear taking over, yet the drivers were mostly code and rules, not human impulse. He framed the candles as the visible result of mechanical position adjustments rather than discretionary selling. Peter Brandt Flags Classic Bitcoin Parabolic Risk Veteran chartist Peter Brandt warned that Bitcoin’s latest surge still fits a long-running boom-and-bust pattern. He shared a weekly chart that traces five major bull cycles since 2010, each marked by a steep parabolic curve. In every prior case, he said, once the dominant parabolic advance broke, Bitcoin later suffered a drawdown of at least 75 percent. Bitcoin Parabolic Bull Cycles Weekly. Source: X Brandt stressed that there have been “no exceptions” to this rule so far. Therefore, he argued that anyone betting the current cycle will avoid a similar deep correction needs a “great reason” to challenge that history. His post frames the current structure as another maturing parabola, with price tracking along an upward arc that has not yet clearly failed.
