This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . Back in July, President-elect Donald Trump floated the idea of a strategic bitcoin reserve. “As you know, most of the bitcoin currently held by the United States government was obtained through law enforcement action,” Trump said during a campaign stop at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville . “You know that they took it from you.” “[We will] keep 100% of all bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires” in a “stockpile,” he added. After Trump left the stage, Wyoming US Senator and long-time crypto advocate Cynthia Lummis appeared, wielding a stack of papers. “Here it is,” she said, holding up the bundle. “This is the Bitcoin Reserve Bill.” The crowd, waiting in their MAGA gear and “Make Bitcoin Great Again” hats for hours to see Trump and Lummis, cheered. Lummis brought the bill to the Senate floor at the end of July, but it didn’t budge. Now, as we kick off a new congressional term, Lummis is expected to revive the legislation — ideally with a co-sponsor or two this time around. The bitcoin reserve has become one of the more talked-about promises Trump has made to the crypto industry. Other pledges made on the campaign trail have either become moot or are too subjective to assess. For example, Trump vowed to fire “Gary Gensler on day one,” an executive action that legal experts doubted he could even do. It doesn’t matter anyway, because the SEC chair has already announced his resignation . Trump also has sworn that his “digital asset advisory council,” to be led by David Sacks , will create a “fair regulatory regime.” We’ll leave it to his numerous crypto donors to settle on a definition of “fair.” But the bitcoin reserve, and whether or not it comes to fruition, is something we can quantify. I’m a little uncertain about just how much the industry cares about the US government holding bitcoin. I’d imagine there are some exchanges and custodians itching to get their hands on what will no doubt be a lucrative government contract. Plus, the existence of a stockpile would position the US as more crypto-friendly, which the industry, of course, wouldn’t mind. A rising tide floats all boats. I’m still skeptical that there’s enough political capital behind the reserve bill for it to move out of committee, assuming Lummis does in fact reintroduce it. Hill staffers and lobbyists I talk to tend to mention legislation around market structure ( à la FIT21 ) and stablecoins far more often. Plus, the Senate is going to be swamped with confirmation hearings in the coming weeks and months, and Republicans have laid out a big — and likely expensive — agenda on taxes, immigration and more. A fun test for how likely a strategic reserve is will be whether or not the DOJ auctions off around $6.5 billion worth of bitcoin that it recently received the greenlight to sell . The court ruling allowing the auction (but not requiring it) came at the end of 2024, so we’ll see if the US Marshals Service undertakes a sale before Trump takes office next week. Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter . Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter . Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more. The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
