Summary Solana trades below $157 trend resistance after a deep correction. Spot outflows remain negative, including nearly $16 million this week. Derivatives positioning turns risky as long ratios stretch above 2.0. By Parshwa Turakhiya Solana ( SOL-USD ) is attempting to stabilize after one of its sharpest corrective phases of the year, yet the character of the bounce remains fragile. Price has rebounded into a heavy resistance zone, but the broader trend continues to reflect forced positioning and a market still dominated by defensive behavior. The market is trying to form a base near $135–$145, but momentum remains weak and structural pressure persists across spot and derivatives markets. Trend pressure remains dominant Solana’s collapse from highs above $270 pushed the token through the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, confirming the transition from expansion to liquidation. Every rebound attempt since October has been capped by a descending trendline now aligned with resistance at $155–$157. That zone overlaps with short-term moving averages and continues to define the market’s ceiling until decisively broken. SOL price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Despite the recent bounce, the candles remain shallow with limited follow-through, consistent with short covering rather than new accumulation. The EMAs are still bearish-stacked and the Supertrend remains red, underscoring that Solana remains in a downtrend until proven otherwise. A decisive break and close above $157 is required to shift the tone from corrective bounce to structural recovery. The $135 support zone is the immediate downside pivot. Losing that level exposes $120, where liquidity clusters historically sit. Until price clears higher ground, bears maintain the strategic advantage. Flows signal weak demand Spot flows reflect the same fragility. December has recorded persistent outflows, including nearly $16 million in the latest session. This pattern highlights fading organic demand and ongoing distribution from larger holders who are selling into rebounds. Outflows appear to be shrinking, which may signal that the forced selling phase is ending, but there is still no evidence of credible accumulation. Derivatives positioning adds complexity. Open interest sits around $7.4 billion, an elevated level that leaves the market leveraged and vulnerable to volatility. OI is no longer expanding, suggesting shorts have stopped building but also that fresh conviction from longs remains limited. Liquidations over the past day hit shorts more heavily, helping fuel the bounce, but such squeezes rarely transition into sustained rallies without genuine spot demand. Long/short ratios tell the clearest story. Binance prints ratios above 2.0, showing traders lean aggressively long into resistance. This imbalance is dangerous if the price fails at $157, as crowded long positioning can unwind quickly. Market faces decisive test The critical zone remains $157. A clean reclaim of this level, supported by rising spot inflows and controlled derivatives buildup, opens the path to $171 and then $175, where the 200-day EMA sits. That is the technical level that must be recovered to start rebuilding a durable uptrend. If price fails at resistance, the structure shifts back toward lower support with risk of acceleration. The broader futures landscape supports this caution, with elevated leverage and unstable funding rates pointing to a market still prone to sharp reversals. Solana’s current setup reflects a market that has flushed weak hands but has yet to attract strong hands. Until spot inflows stabilize and trend resistance breaks, the asset remains in a corrective phase rather than a reversal cycle. Previously, we discussed Solana’s vulnerability as long as the price remained below the descending trendline and major EMAs. The present structure reinforces those concerns, with flows, leverage, and resistance levels collectively limiting upside until momentum proves sustainable. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
