Summary I am downgrading ProShares Bitcoin ETF to sell, anticipating underperformance during a projected crypto bear market. The historical cycle analysis and bearish technical signals suggest Bitcoin may decline until September 2026, with a potential 70–80% downside. I shifted my strategy to the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF (WNTR), which benefits from Bitcoin declines and offers a trailing 12-month yield of ~60%. WNTR has outperformed Bitcoin, BITO, and IBIT since October 2025, and technicals indicate potential for further upside as the crypto winter persists. The crypto winter is already here, in my opinion, based on some key historical trends. Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) monthly chart is already bearish, which always marked the year-long bear market. The daily chart shows a bear flag formation, which typically results in a continuation to the downside. As a result, I am changing my rating for the ProShares Bitcoin ETF ( BITO ) to a sell, as it is likely to underperform during the crypto bear market. My shift in strategy is to hold WNTR during Bitcoin's bear market, which may last until about September 2026. Bitcoin's last two price cycles lasted 1,050 days from the price bottom to the price peak. If that remains consistent, the bull market for the current price cycle already ended in October 2025 with a peak price of about $126,000. Bitcoin's Monthly Chart Bitcoin's Monthly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Bitcoin's monthly chart above shows how bearish divergences between the price and the RSI indicator are followed by a year-long bear market. A bearish divergence occurred back in 2021 as bitcoin's price made a higher high from the April peak to the November peak. During that same time, the RSI made a lower high. That bearish divergence resulted in bitcoin's bear market, which lasted through most of 2022. The current price cycle shows a similar bearish divergence. Bitcoin's price made a higher high from the January 2025 peak price to the October 2025 peak price. The RSI made a lower high during that same time. The MACD confirmed the bear market in January 2022 when the blue MACD line crossed below the red signal line while the histogram bars turned to red. The same bearish crossover occurred in November 2025, with the blue line crossing below the red signal line while the histogram bars turned back to red. If this cycle is consistent with prior cycles, then Bitcoin could continue its decline until about September 2026. The Bitcoin bear markets tend to last about one year from the peak price to the price bottom. Bitcoin tends to drop 70% to 80% during these bear markets. So, it makes sense to me to reposition for this likely crypto winter. Bitcoin's Daily Chart Bitcoin's Daily Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Bitcoin's Daily Chart above shows a bear flag formation. This is indicated by the sharp drop in price during most of November, as the flag pole. The consolidation period since the low price from November 21 represents the bear flag. Consolidation periods as part of a bear flag like this typically result in a continuation downward. The RSI is now bearish on the daily chart as it dropped below 50. The MACD appears to be bullish as the blue line remains above the red signal line while the histogram bars remain green. However, bitcoin's price is not showing much strength as it has been failing to move above $95,000. As a result, I expect the price to break lower than $80,000 as the crypto winter continues. Strategy Shift I liked holding BITO during the bull phase of Bitcoin's price cycle. The underlying price might lag bitcoin's price appreciation. However, the monthly dividends that the ETF pays results in an attractive total return along with a steady payout when bitcoin's price trades sideways. My thesis is that bitcoin is likely to decline until about September 2026, in line with the year-long bear markets of the past. I was initially considering switching to the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF ( BITI ) for a bearish position. However, BITI only has a yield of less than 2% for a monthly payout, so I found an another alternative that pays a higher yield on a weekly basis. I sold my BITO holding and bought the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF ( WNTR ). WNTR is a short-play on Strategy ( MSTR ), which is highly levered to bitcoin. MSTR dropped about 90% during the last bitcoin bear market in 2022. So, I expect a similar sharp drop in price for this bear market. WNTR has been appreciating in value since the October 2025 bitcoin price peak. The other attractive aspect of WNTR is that it pays a weekly distribution with a trailing 12-month yield of about 60%. The distributions do fluctuate week to week. So, it can be difficult to determine what the annual yield will be going forward. WNTR Daily Chart vs. Bitcoin, BITO, IBIT (TradingView) The daily chart above shows WNTR's outperformance over Bitcoin, BITO, and The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) since the beginning of October 2025. This chart accounts for both price appreciation and distribution payouts. WNTR is displaying a bull flag formation. This indicates a consolidation after the recent run-up in price. Bull flag formations like this typically result in continuations to the upside, from what I have observed. I expect a break higher in WNTR as bitcoin continues lower through about September 2026. Risks To The Investment Thesis It is possible that this bitcoin price cycle does act differently than the previous two cycles. It is possible that Bitcoin rallies to a new high in the coming weeks or months. It is also possible that this bear market has a much shallower drop than in previous cycles. Many investors believe that since bitcoin is maturing with institutional support (ETFs, etc), that it won't have the sharp drops in price like in past bear markets. It can be difficult to time the bitcoin market. As a result, some investors may prefer to hold bitcoin over the long term and ride out the bear markets. The Bottom Line Outlook My thesis is that this current price cycle will play out similarly to the previous two cycles. I remember some analysts saying that the last cycle would be different back in 2021 due to more widespread adoption of Bitcoin. Some analysts were calling for the price of bitcoin to hit $100,000 by the end of 2022. Well, that didn't happen, and a year-long bear market occurred instead. Some of the same analysts are calling for bitcoin to hit $200k to $300k in 2026. Well, I think that might be a better target for the next price cycle after this bear market runs its course until about September 2026. If this cycle lasted about as long as the previous two cycles, then the price of bitcoin already peaked at about $126,000 in October 2025. WNTR is one option for a short play to hold during this bear market. WNTR is likely to appreciate while the highly levered MSTR declines. Plus, the weekly distributions from WNTR should add significantly to the total return. I will look to shift my strategy when the technical conditions change.
