Summary Dogecoin trades near $0.15 after a controlled two-month downtrend from early-Q4 highs. Leverage rises with long/short ratios above 2.2 on major venues, amplifying liquidation risks. Spot outflows slow, with a modest $620K inflow marking the first positive reading in weeks. By Parshwa Turakhiya Dogecoin ( DOGE-USD ) is attempting to stabilize after a two-month slide that pushed the token to a low near $0.13, marking one of its deepest drawdowns of the year. The recovery toward $0.15 reflects tentative dip-buying interest, but the broader structure remains defined by a persistent downtrend channel and a market still unwinding excess leverage. DOGE has not collapsed, yet the burden of proof has shifted firmly onto buyers. The daily chart continues to show DOGE respecting a clean descending channel, with overhead resistance between $0.158 and $0.165, where the mid-channel boundary intersects the 20-day EMA. A rejection here would keep downward momentum intact and risk a retest of the lower channel line near $0.125, a level that has repeatedly acted as a liquidity floor. DOGE price analysis (Source: TradingView) The more decisive battleground sits higher, between $0.171 and $0.18. This zone aligns with the 50-day EMA and a horizontal shelf that capped price action throughout early Q4. Until DOGE clears that area, rallies remain corrective rather than structural. Yet the long-term accumulation base stretching back to March continues to hold. As long as the price stays above $0.128–$0.13, Dogecoin avoids structural damage and maintains the slow-build accumulation narrative that has underpinned its broader cycle. A breakdown below that floor would shift the market toward deeper support at $0.105–$0.11, an area known for abrupt and volatile reversals when liquidity thins and shorts overextend. Momentum indicators reflect this transitional phase. RSI sits near 45, rising from oversold territory but not yet signaling trend reversal. Historically, DOGE requires a breakout of the 55–60 RSI band to trigger sustained upside, a threshold the market has yet to approach. Flows and positioning reveal a market repairing, not rallying Spot flows show a market that has shed considerable risk. Repeated $40–100 million net outflows through September and October underscored investor reluctance to commit capital. The most recent print, however, shows a $620,000 inflow, the first positive reading in weeks. While small, it indicates the bleeding has slowed and sellers are no longer dominating every bounce. The derivatives market tells a more complicated story. Open interest has risen 8.6 percent to $1.5 billion, with volume jumping 42 percent. Long/short ratios above 2.2 on major venues point to a heavily long-biased market, meaning the current bounce is driven by leverage rather than organic spot demand. If DOGE fails to break resistance, these leveraged longs risk liquidation cascades that could accelerate downside entirely through mechanical unwinds. This dynamic is not unfamiliar. The last time DOGE saw rising open interest during a downtrend, the market was setting up for a washout that ultimately produced the late-Q1 rally. Rising leverage into weakness is historically fragile. A controlled squeeze lower could clear positioning and reset conditions for a healthier upside attempt - an outcome paradoxically favorable for medium-term bulls. The short-term roadmap remains binary. A reclaim of $0.171–$0.18 would break the downtrend and open room toward $0.20–$0.21, where the 200-day EMA sits and where prior rallies failed. Conversely, a drop below $0.138–$0.14 would expose DOGE to a liquidity flush toward $0.115, a level where mean-reversion traders historically step in aggressively. A market digesting, not collapsing The deeper narrative surrounding DOGE is one of digestion rather than deterioration. The token is shedding speculative leverage accumulated earlier in the year while attempting to stabilize above long-term support. Spot selling has slowed, derivatives positioning is stretched but active, and sentiment remains hesitant but not despairing. DOGE is now balanced between two competing forces: cheap enough to interest value-focused buyers, but not strong enough to force shorts to unwind. The next test of resistance will determine whether this bounce becomes a trend or fades into another liquidity event in a market still detoxing from its last cycle. In earlier coverage, we noted that Dogecoin’s structure had entered a slow-grind corrective phase rather than a collapse, with long-term support levels showing resilience even as leverage unwound. The current price behavior aligns with that view. DOGE is still repairing, not reversing, and the key catalysts ahead remain its ability to reclaim EMAs and reverse the descending channel that has defined sentiment since early Q4. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
