This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . Holiday celebrations transpired the last few days. But the week was also marked by MicroStrategy becoming part of the Nasdaq 100. While some thought this would offer the company’s stock price a short-term lift, that so far hasn’t been the case. As of 1 pm ET, MSTR’s share price was down 22% since the market opened on Dec. 16 (after the index inclusion news late the prior Friday). End-of-year profit-taking (MSTR is up ~380% in 2024) and recent declines in BTC price are likely contributors to MicroStrategy’s latest price dip. But the bigger picture? Significance of MSTR’s inclusion in the index, analysts note, stems from the massive funds that allocate to the Nasdaq 100 constituents — namely Invesco’s QQQ, an ETF that manages $325 billion in assets. “More to the point, it’s acceptance,” Dan Weiskopf, co-portfolio manager of Amplify’s BLOK ETF, told me last week. “It’s institutional adoption. It’s an example of [Michael Saylor’s] strategy working , candidly.” The question for 2025 is whether MSTR could also land itself in the S&P 500. Bigger than QQQ, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — with $636 billion in assets — invests in the companies within that index. Weiskopf called this possibility within the next year “a reach,” but believes it’s inevitable. Benchmark’s Mark Palmer noted that while MicroStrategy easily meets the minimum market cap and trading volume, it needs positive earnings for the most recent quarter and combined positive earnings for its last four quarters. MSTR’s plan to adopt new FASB guidance on how BTC on balance sheets is accounted for would position it to begin reporting positive earnings as soon as Q1, Palmer added. People are clearly noticing the trend of more companies holding BTC as a treasury asset. Just ask asset manager Bitwise, which yesterday proposed a Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF. The planned offering would invest in companies with market caps above $100 million that hold at least 1,000 BTC in their corporate treasury. MSTR obviously fits that criteria (444,262 BTC). So too do a bunch of the bigger bitcoin miners , like Marathon Digital (44,394 BTC as of Dec. 18), Hut 8 (10,096 BTC), Riot Platforms (17,429 BTC) and CleanSpark (9,297 BTC). Elsewhere, Metaplanet revealed a buy of roughly 620 BTC on Monday, bringing its total holdings to about 1,762 BTC. Others — like KULR Technology Group, with an initial buy of 217 BTC yesterday — are working their way up. Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter . Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter . Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more. The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
