Summary Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,409, driven by President-elect Trump's promises of crypto-friendly regulations and making Bitcoin a reserve currency. Trump's victory has fuelled optimism in the crypto market, leading to significant gains in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins. If Trump delivers his promises, Bitcoin could further stretch gains to $100,000 or even $110,000, making it a multi-trillion dollar asset. Risks include potential profit-taking and the possibility that Trump's promises were mere campaign tactics, which could lead to a significant pullback in Bitcoin's price. On Wednesday, Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) spiked to hit a new all-time high of $93,409 mainly driven by President-elect Trump’s victory on November 4. The crypto community is buoyed by what Trump promised during his re-election campaign rather than anything he’s already delivered to the industry. Trump's win has been good for crypto During the Bitcoin event in Nashville, Trump promised that if elected, he would fire the Securities and Exchange Commission chair, Gary Gensler. Gensler's tenure has seen the SEC charge several cryptocurrency companies, including Binance, Coinbase ( COIN ), Robinhood’s ( HOOD ) crypto unit, and others, for allegedly breaching securities laws. The president-elect also promised to make Bitcoin a reserve currency in the U.S., and most importantly, advocated for a crypto-friendly regulation. Both these two promises are particularly exciting to the crypto community, due to the potential impact it would have on the global markets. Trump’s huge election win explains why many crypto traders are optimistic about the future, and thus the current rally that has seen Bitcoin trade above $90,000, Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) cross $3,200 and several other altcoins hit new all-time highs. However, sentiment-driven rallies tend to be short-lived, which is why, even if Bitcoin hits $100,000 before January, it could still experience a pullback in the weeks or months following Trump’s swearing-in. Trump's win can have a better impact Firstly, once the sentimentality is out of the window, investors will begin to assess their options with a longer-term view whilst keeping a close eye on Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises. If Trump made Bitcoin a reserve currency in the U.S., it could be a matter of time before other countries do the same, in which case, it would result in increased demand for the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. There has been a lot of debate about whether or not Bitcoin has essentially replaced gold as a safe-haven asset, with some research failing to yield conclusive results after putting the theory to the test. The crypto community will also be watching to see what measures Trump takes towards implementing a regulatory framework that encourages crypto innovation and attracts more mainstream players to the industry. Investors will want to see progress from the previous administration. Whilst the SEC may be seen as being one of the stumbling blocks for the crypto industry in the U.S. over the last three years, it also made some key regulatory milestones with the approvals of Spot Bitcoin and Spot Ethereum ETFs. Since the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) has surged to a market cap of $40.9 billion, making it one of the biggest ETFs across all categories. BlackRock is one of the several traditional asset managers that expanded their product offerings to include digital assets in January. $100,000 may not necessarily be the short-term ceiling Trading View Technically, Bitcoin has completed an upward channel breakout to trade above $90,000. The latest spike in price comes hot on the heels of the pre-election gains that saw the BTC-USD rally from about $52,000 in September to over $73,000 at the start of November. The last time Bitcoin experienced such a rally was between January and March after the Securities and Exchange Commission approved multiple Spot Bitcoin ETFs. But what Bitcoin is experiencing now is a spike never seen before, after setting a new record daily gain of $8.4k on Monday. Given the intense buying activity over the past ten days, many have started to predict that the BTC-USD could hit $100,000 before the end of the year. But given it’s already trading above $90,000, unless some profit-taking kicks in even $110,000 looks realistic at this point. If Bitcoin hits $110, it will be worth north of $2.1 trillion, becoming a multi-trillion dollar asset for the first time. However, if Bitcoin experiences some profit-taking, potentially halting its climb in the short term, declines below its post-Spot ETF approvals high are unlikely. Still, the $55,000 level provides long-term support, which could become effective if Trump takes longer than anticipated to begin to implement his ‘crypto manifesto’. Stephen Wundke, Strategy and Revenue Director at quantitative digital asset investment firm Algoz, who claims to have successfully predicted the path of the BTC price this year to date, believes that if Trump delivers on his word to the crypto community, the macroeconomic forces would likely play a huge role in rallying the bitcoin price and the crypto market overall. Wundke who believes much of Bitcoin’s price movement this year has been dictated by macroeconomic factors also can’t wait to see if the pioneer cryptocurrency maintains this trend or deviates to take an independent path. “If the broader-based, crypto market and its various altcoins is also to enjoy a strong rally then it will be because President-Elect Trump is good to his word from the BTC Nashville Conference, where he laid out a strong case for the integration of cryptocurrency into the mainstream of federal finance,” Wundke argued, responding to my commentary outreach. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Trump made those promises for campaign purposes without having any intention of honouring them. There is already speculation that the SEC chair Gary Gensler will resign at the end of December, which generally would fulfill one of Trump’s first promises. During the Nashville Bitcoin event, the President-Elect vowed to fire Gensler on day one. Once that happens, traders will be looking forward to the plans that Trump will put in place to deliver his other promises, starting with appointing a more crypto-friendly person to be the chair of the SEC and then establishing a Bitcoin treasury. Risks Bitcoin’s latest rally has attracted significant inflows, which means at some point in the near future, some investors may start taking profits. That could lead to a significant pullback in the BTC-USD price, as has been the case multiple times in the past. From a fundamental perspective, if Trump fails to put measures in place to deliver on his promises, investors could interpret his remarks at the Nashville Bitcoin event as nothing than campaign tactics, in which case, Bitcoin could begin to shed a lot of the gains it has made over the past three months. Conclusion While Bitcoin’s latest rally is driven by Trump’s big election win, many traders will be waiting to see whether he delivers on the promises he made to the industry. After rallying to trade above $90,000, Bitcoin now seems destined to touch $100,000 by the end of the year, before potentially touching $110,000. The higher figure could be achieved based on how quickly Trump implements his ‘crypto manifesto’.
