Bitcoin has recently begun to see a major recovery in its price, reclaiming the $66,000 mark earlier today. This sudden positivity in price performance has prompted debates on whether retail investors and newcomers have returned to the market. Although there has so far been speculation about increased retail participation, a detailed analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For Volatility Ahead Of Chinese Stimulus Speculations, Options Expiry A Closer Look At Retail Participation According to a CryptoQuant analyst, BinhDang, in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the trends among smaller retail groups show growth and stagnation in different areas, reflecting a complicated dynamic in the current market cycle. In the post titled “1 Year Change – From Plankton to Fish Addresses,” BinhDang broke down Bitcoin wallet activity into several categories of retail investors, including plankton (addresses holding more than 0 but less than or equal to 0.1 BTC), shrimp (holding more than 0.1 but less than 1 BTC), and fish (holding between 10 and 100 BTC). These smaller groups were analyzed because they better represent retail investors than larger wallet categories like whales or humpbacks, which tend to be dominated by institutional players or exchanges. One of the key observations made by BinhDang is that the growth in retail addresses is uneven, particularly among the smallest investors. The plankton addresses, representing individuals holding tiny amounts of Bitcoin, have shown almost negligible growth from 2023 to the present day. This starkly contrasts previous cycles, where significant price increases were accompanied by a sharp rise in the number of retail investors holding small amounts of Bitcoin. The analyst explained that this slower growth could reflect broader economic conditions, including the global decline in monetary flows over the past few years, which may have discouraged new entrants from investing in Bitcoin. Potential For Future FOMO In Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle The uneven growth in retail addresses points to a cautious return of retail investors to the Bitcoin market. However, there are still positive signs that the current cycle has room to expand. BinhDang highlighted the trend of retail investors, particularly those in the “fish” category (holding between 10 and 100 BTC), who have continued accumulating Bitcoin, suggesting that while smaller investors may be hesitant, more seasoned participants are preparing for the next phase of the bull cycle. The data indicates that while retail participation is not as strong as in previous cycles, there remains the potential for a final wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that could drive Bitcoin to new heights. The analyst particularly wrote in the post: So, the data suggests that future FOMO waves are still possible in this cycle. Based on these observations, I conclude there is still a basis to look forward to a final wave in this cycle. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
