Bitcoin briefly surged above $74,000 on March 4, but the rally quickly lost momentum. Over the following three days, the cryptocurrency dropped 7.6%, raising concerns among analysts about the possibility of a deeper correction. Market observers now point to $61,000 as a potential downside target if bearish pressure continues. According to Crypto Candy Trader, Bitcoin is currently moving in a bearish direction after failing to consolidate above $70,000, a key psychological and technical level. A short-term rebound toward $65,000-$66,000 remains possible. However, the broader technical picture still favors the bears as long as Bitcoin trades below the $74,000 resistance zone. Technical Signals Suggest Bears Hold the Initiative Technical analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) in Bitcoin’s recent price action. Bitcoin briefly moved above this level but failed to close above it on the weekly chart, leaving only a wick. In technical analysis, this pattern often signals a false breakout, which can erase recent gains and reinforce resistance. If the weekly candle closes below the 200-week EMA, the level could strengthen as a major resistance barrier, increasing downside risks for the market. Bitcoin and Gold Show a Rare Divergence Analyst Michael van de Poppe also pointed to an unusual divergence between Bitcoin and gold. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently sits at historically low levels. According to van de Poppe, this suggests that gold may be temporarily overbought while Bitcoin appears oversold. Part of gold’s recent strength may be linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which often push investors toward safe-haven assets. If geopolitical risks ease, gold prices could correct, potentially shifting capital flows back toward Bitcoin. However, analysts note that Bitcoin still needs clear momentum in the coming days to confirm a potential reversal. Miners and Corporate Holders Are Feeling the Pressure On-chain data is also highlighting growing stress across the Bitcoin ecosystem. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed to figures from mining company MARA, showing that the average cost of mining one Bitcoin is around $70,027. With Bitcoin trading near those levels, many miners are operating close to breakeven or at a loss, a situation that can increase selling pressure as companies cover operational costs. Meanwhile, data from Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, reveals that 77% of companies holding Bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets are currently underwater on their investments. The last time a similar situation occurred was in May 2022, during one of the most severe phases of the previous bear market. Historical Context Raises Additional Concerns Historical patterns add another layer of caution for investors. The conditions seen in May 2022, when many corporate holders were in loss, did not mark the bottom of the market. Instead, Bitcoin continued to decline and eventually fell to around $16,000, losing roughly 50% more value after that point. According to Rekt Capital, the shortest bear market in Bitcoin’s history lasted about 365 days. The current downtrend has lasted roughly 140 days, suggesting that the cycle could still be relatively early compared with past market phases. For now, analysts say Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether the market can regain momentum above key resistance levels, or whether the bearish scenario toward $61,000 begins to unfold.
