Summary From a yield perspective, gold has delivered a return of 7.29% over the last 30 days, while silver has achieved an impressive 23.59%. BTC suffered a monthly drawdown of nearly 10%, and the Nasdaq managed a mere 0.2% gain this month. Since the beginning of 2025, the market share of altcoins has been in a "slow and steady" decline, and the "data vacuum" threatens to prolong this situation for months, or even longer. The current market structure presents a sustained and steady "far-month bearishness". This means traders are not only hedging against immediate declines but are wagering on a long, painful downward cycle. "When Gold and Silver Eclipse All Else" In an era awash with algorithmic trading and high-frequency market makers, nothing is more ironic than a sudden intrusion by the physical world. Last Friday, a data centre malfunction at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), so-called "pulling the plug", provided the global market with an unscheduled stress test. The results revealed an unsettling truth for investors: in the face of genuine liquidity panic, capital instinctively flocks to age-old safe havens, not "digital gold". As screens lit up and futures quotes resumed, we witnessed a textbook example of "The Great Divergence". Gold not only reclaimed lost ground but surged past $4,200/oz, while silver stormed to fresh record highs with wild abandon. By comparison, BTC ( BTC-USD ) resembled a toy left forgotten in a corner, lingering at its lows. Although a rebound during the trading week briefly pushed BTC prices near $94k, the last time gold reached these levels, BTC was trading around $120k. From a yield perspective, gold has delivered a return of 7.29% over the last 30 days, while silver has achieved an impressive 23.59%. Meanwhile, BTC suffered a monthly drawdown of nearly 10%, and the Nasdaq managed a mere 0.2% gain this month. Source: Tradingview Source: Tradingview This was not merely short covering triggered by a technical glitch but a microcosm of liquidity reallocation. As the spectre of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening offshore liquidity looms, global capital has, to an extent, reined in its risk appetite. Yet, the greater danger stems from a bond market spiralling out of control: as of November, the total outstanding US T-bills, T-notes, and T-bonds reached $30.2 trillion. This $30.2 trillion debt accounts for the bulk of the total US federal debt. Moreover, the total US national debt stands at $38.4 trillion, including obligations to the Social Security Trust Fund and holders of savings bonds. Source: jec.senate.gov Astronomical interest servicing costs have further fuelled investor anxiety regarding potential risks in US Treasuries. According to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the US raised $4.3 trillion through the issuance of the aforementioned three types of government bonds in 2020, with the fiscal deficit that year exceeding $3 trillion. Although the deficit has since narrowed (falling to approximately $1.78 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year), interest payments on the debt alone amount to a staggering $1.2 trillion. Even if tariff revenues reach $300–400 billion, they fall far short of the interest payable on existing debt. Consequently, offshore investors have begun to re-embrace gold and silver. Although an element of a "short squeeze" contributed to silver's price surge, a shift in market narrative has provided robust support for its valuation. While BTC is also viewed as an "emerging digital precious metal" akin to gold and silver, it is still largely perceived as an "alternative vessel for USD liquidity", placing it at a disadvantage in the competition for liquidity. A December of Blind Men and the Elephant For risk assets, the worst news is that forward visibility is practically zero. Although the weakness in November's ADP employment data (coupled with previously poor retail figures) has all but locked in a Federal Reserve rate cut for December, this is not the "preemptive cut" the market desires. It appears, instead, to be a forced measure under the shadow of an economic slowdown. Even more headache-inducing is the persisting "data vacuum". Non-farm payroll data will be absent until mid-December, and the normalisation of economic data releases is not expected until 2026. In a market that relies on real-time data for algorithmic pricing, we are still trading based on data from the end of the third quarter; this is tantamount to blind men attempting to describe an elephant. Losing one's anchor means the risk premium must rise; this is another reason why the 10-year T-note yield remains firmly above 4%. Source: www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com Put simply, if you cannot see the road clearly, you do not drive fast. This is why long-term risk appetite is being suppressed, which is detrimental to a crypto market that relies on continuous capital inflows. Since the beginning of 2025, the market share of altcoins has been in a "slow and steady" decline, and the "data vacuum" threatens to prolong this situation for months, or even longer. Source: Tradingview Whales are Betting on a "Prolonged Slump" If the macro environment is a headwind, the internal structure of the crypto market suggests engine failure. Let us look at implied forward yields. In a healthy bull market, futures premiums typically push up implied forward yields, indicating investors are willing to pay a considerable cost for potential upside, while offering arbitrageurs decent profits. But now? BTC's implied forward yield is a mere 5.31%, and ETH ( ETH-USD ) is as low as 3.81%. When the yield on holding Ethereum futures shorts cannot even beat 10-year T-notes, this is more than just "low sentiment". Institutional capital remains "uninterested" in the potential performance of ETH and the vast majority of cryptocurrencies for the foreseeable future. Source: Amberdata Derivatives The most worrying signal comes from the options desk. If you want to know what "smart money" is thinking, do not listen to what they say on Twitter; look at what options they are buying. The current market structure presents a sustained and steady "far-month bearishness". This means traders are not only hedging against immediate declines but are wagering on a long, painful downward cycle. Source: Amberdata Derivatives Furthermore, BTC prices are sliding towards the zero gamma zone. For investors, this means the market's "shock absorbers" are weakening. Market makers are no longer smoothing out volatility by "selling high and buying low"; instead, they may be forced to sell as prices fall, thereby accelerating any crash. Source: Amberdata Derivatives The market in December will be a game of "confidence". The Fed will cut rates, but this may not be sufficient to offset the receding tide of offshore liquidity (courtesy of the BoJ) and the uncertainty brought about by the data vacuum. This winter, gold and silver have proven themselves to be reliable old friends. And cryptocurrencies? Unless they can swiftly recover liquidity, they will be left to face the cold wind alone. Economic Calendar of This Week Monday 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Tuesday 10:00 EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash Wednesday 13:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov) Wednesday 15:00 US ISM Services PMI Friday 15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel US Personal Income MoM US Personal Spending MoM US Core PCE Price Index MoM Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out below is for informational purposes only. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
