Summary Crypto market at a critical point; another leg up could see $120,000+, but if we're at the top a return to $30,000 or below is possible for Bitcoin. Retail (non-institution) sector has been the crypto driver until now but Google Trends shows waning interest on Main Street. Bear case: crypto is tired, not wired. Bull case: adoption by ‘institutions’ will drive crypto to mighty price peaks. The only call in crypto right now is, ‘is this the top or is there more to go?’ Most people who think it has more to go on this cycle predict $120,000+ for Bitcoin, which is an intuitive level, and of course there remains the $1,000,000-a-Bitcoin believers, and every bullish level in between. A top in crypto right here and now would suggest a return to levels at $30,000 or below. As such, it is a critical call if you are either side of the bull/bear crypto debate. You can vision it like this: ADVFN I admit to favouring another leg, but the market doesn’t care what I think, we should all be left weighing up the pros and cons. What has driven crypto to this point, without doubt, is ‘retail’ interest or rather non-institution interest. One of the big bull cases is that adoption by ‘institutions’ will drive crypto to mighty price peaks. As a side note, ‘institutions’ should not be conflated with shifty enterprises with which crypto is sadly plagued, but as the likes of established regulated entities that were in financial services long before new companies sprung up to feed on the retail crypto denizens who gold rushed into coins and tokens. ‘Institutions’ are pillars of the financial system, not slippery fly-by-night companies, and they offer a channel for crypto expansion. Proper institutions have arrived, and US ETFs are here. ETFs are meant to expand the market dramatically and create the next leg up. It could happen. BUT…. Here is a sobering chart care of Google. Google Trends This is Google Trends clearly showing waning interest on Main Street. The bottom line is ‘institutions’ are only there to ‘serve’ Main Street, and they will only play if there is lots of money in it for them. Crypto exploded because of many factors so here are a few to consider: Novelty: Fad or earth-shattering developments all get a boost from their initial novelty Accessibility: Trading with instant access; no KYC/AML, bank account or personal details needed Fun: A free-for-all is fun until you hurt yourself 10x, 100x, 1000x opportunities to profit Ferocious promotion; illegal for almost any other product or category, let alone a financial service A pantheon of young crypto celebrities - borderline outlaws - spicing up the scene Daily emergence of new stuff out of nowhere promising something revolutionary Crypto’s general sexy financial and political outlaw status Its untraceability Untrammelled outlet for gambling Fashion Ridiculously young people getting a look in Transborder-ism There are more, but the above have one thing is common: they are all less, going or gone. For me, this is the main bear case: crypto is tired not wired. So, what of the bull case; after all, I’m long? Opinions are like belly buttons, everyone’s got one and very few are useful. So let’s follow the old trader advice of ‘trade what you see, not what you think.’ This is what I see: ADVFN Bitcoin is in a range waiting to reprice. It’s not a case of waiting for a price equilibrium, we are there, it’s just a matter of waiting and judging a breakout either way. Ethereum is in the same state, and it has a clear way to judge, at least if we are in a new moon phase. ADVFN It is easy to be a naysayer, but I see strong arguments for another reprice upwards. After that, I have no opinion. I say to anyone who asks will BTC be $1,000,000 a coin, ‘sure no problem, if a pint of beer gets to be $1000.’ Beyond that, I think crypto will pivot after the end of this cycle and will offer a complete new set of opportunities outside of currency. As such, I see this cycle - or perhaps the next - being a sea change, so after the cycle completes that is where I’ll be looking for the next set of profits. Meanwhile, I’m still long which is enough to say I think another leg up is more likely than a fall into a new crypto winter.
