Bitcoin Breaks Every Rule in the Book—Analysts Say Traditional Cycles Are Dead

Bitcoin's trajectory appears to be shifting after a strong 8% surge on Wednesday brought fresh optimism to cryptocurrency markets. The digital asset briefly approached $94,000 during the rally before settling at $93,079 at the time of writing. BTC price chart, Source: CoinMarketCap Market analysts suggest the worst may be over. Bitfinex research indicates that extreme deleveraging and capitulation among short-term holders have created conditions favorable for stabilization. The selling pressure that characterized recent weeks shows signs of exhaustion. The cryptocurrency market underwent significant cleansing on October 10 when approximately $19 billion in overleveraged positions were liquidated. This event triggered a sustained downturn that pushed Bitcoin to $82,000 by November 21. The market has since recovered over 11% from that local bottom. Reduced Leverage Creates Stability The current market structure differs substantially from previous periods of volatility. Bitcoin now operates on what analysts describe as a leaner leverage base. This reduction in borrowed capital diminishes the risk of cascading liquidations that have historically caused sharp price drops. Bitfinex analysts emphasize that remaining leverage appears well-contained. The market's systemic fragility has decreased, improving prospects for a sustained consolidation phase. Investors who survived the recent shakeout tend to hold stronger positions with less debt exposure. The October liquidation event effectively cleared weak hands from the market. Long positions built on excessive leverage were forced to close, leaving behind a more resilient base of holders. This process, while painful, typically precedes more stable price action. Traditional Cycle Patterns Face Questions The late-year price correction has prompted debate about Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory. This framework historically aligned Bitcoin's peak prices with halving events and subsequent years. Many observers expected the October all-time high of $125,100 to mark the peak of the current cycle. However, market behavior suggests that traditional patterns may no longer be applicable. Bitcoin analyst PlanC stated the current cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. The analyst has maintained this position for over a year, urging followers to recognize evolving market dynamics. December's performance will be crucial in determining whether seasonal trends remain relevant. Historical data show modest gains of 4.69% in December since 2013. Yet November defied expectations by declining 17.67% despite being statistically Bitcoin's strongest month, with average returns exceeding 41%.